CCS shipping is expected to increase as demand rises.

Northern Pathfinder. Source: Northern Lights.

Expectations of industrial-scale CO2 capture drives renewed attention to shipping and storage infrastructure needs.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is approaching a pivotal growth phase, with DNV forecasting a 30-fold increase in capture capacity by 2050. This expansion will drive sustained demand for CO2 transport infrastructure, including a growing fleet of CO2-carrying vessels, according to DNV’s newly published CCS Outlook to 2050.

“We believe the capture and storage capacity will quadruple by 2030, reaching 270M tonnes per annum,” said DNV energy systems chief executive Ditlev Engel, speaking during the launch event. “Make no mistake, CCS is a vital decarbonisation technology.”

Mr Engel noted the heaviest current deployment of CCS remains in natural gas processing and enhanced oil recovery. However, by mid-century, industry sources such as cement and steel manufacturing will represent the majority of captured emissions.

DNV global segment lead for CCS Jamie Burrows underlined the implications for CO2 transport. “We are starting to deploy CCS on new emissions sources,” he explained. “In 2050, CCS will capture 6% of global CO2 emissions. But to reach net zero, our forecasted capacity would need to be six times higher.”

That scale-up presents logistical demands. DNV’s report estimates cumulative CCS investments will reach US$700M by 2050, exclusive of onboard systems. Ship-based CO2 carriage, originally developed for the food and beverage industry, is now being upscaled to handle batch transport from coastal industrial sites to subsea storage.

“Shipping introduces different requirements than pipelines,” said Mr Burrows. “Buffer storage, liquefaction capacity and new vessels are needed. It becomes a complex value chain.” Northern Lights, Equinor’s joint venture CO2 transport and storage provider, is pioneering such infrastructure. Its operations include purpose-built vessels and a receiving terminal in Øygarden, Norway.

Speaking at the same event, Equinor vice president low carbon solution Sigrid Borthen Toven noted early uptake of shipping as an alternative to fixed pipeline infrastructure. “We are seeing increasing momentum around shipping as a flexible mode of CO2 transport, especially in regions where pipeline infrastructure is unlikely.”

The manufacturing sector alone is expected to account for 41% of annual CO2 capture by 2050, with DNV projecting 110M tonnes of CO2 captured from cement plants and 94M tonnes from chemical production.

This will intensify the requirement for scaleable, multi-modal transport routes. “Shipping is a key enabler,” said Mr Burrows, noting marine-based CCS applications, such as onboard capture on ships, are expected to contribute to emissions reduction in the maritime sector by the 2040s.

Petronas general manager for CCS Nor A’in Md Salleh highlighted the emerging regional frameworks to support these developments. “The Malaysian government has approved a CCS bill in parliament,” she said. “We are also setting up a dedicated CCS agency and are working to enable cross-border CCS, which is critical for regional deployment.”

Ms Salleh emphasised the importance of strategic partnerships. “This is an integrated business with a long value chain,” she explained. “It requires alignment of capture, transport and storage readiness. Through partnerships, we are overcoming value chain fragmentation.”

Storegga chief executive Tim Stedman echoed the call for policy clarity. “Uncertainty is the killer,” he said. “In the US, the 45Q tax credit provides a stable incentive. In the UK, Project Acorn sits within a regulated model. Across jurisdictions, different models are evolving, but a consistent policy framework is essential to move to final investment decision.”

Mr Stedman argued CCS also supports wider energy transition needs. “It allows fossil fuels to be used with lower environmental impact. This helps bridge the transition while renewables scale.”

From a technology perspective, Mr Burrows stressed that the fundamentals are proven. “We have more than 50 large-scale capture facilities operating today,” he said. “More than 8,000 km of dense phase CO2 pipelines are in use, and subsurface injection has been carried out for over 50 years. However, new deployment methods – such as clustering emitters and using maritime transport – raise fresh technical questions.”

DNV forecasts that, by 2030, around two-thirds of the additional CCS capacity will be developed in North America and Europe. However, growth will accelerate in other regions, including Asia-Pacific, where Petronas is seeking to establish Malaysia as a regional hub for capture, transport and storage.

“Collaboration is key,” said Ms Salleh. “We need partners across sectors. The hydrocarbon industry cannot do this alone. Shared infrastructure, aligned timing, and mutual access to technology and skills will determine the success of cross-border CCS.”

The regulatory framework must support these ambitions, both domestically and internationally. “It is not enough to have project finance,” said Mr Stedman. “If you cannot legally inject CO2 or transfer liability, the project cannot progress.”

The maritime sector is also expected to see the uptake of onboard carbon capture technologies, with DNV forecasting 15% of global shipping emissions will be captured and stored by 2050. The EU Emissions Trading System already allows for this, and IMO has agreed to finalise a regulatory framework by 2028.

In the final panel discussion, Mr Burrows returned to the question of policy fragility. “Carbon prices in most jurisdictions remain too low,” he said. “Without targeted support mechanisms – whether through grant funding, tax credits, or carbon contracts for difference – projects will not achieve financial close.”

The scale of the challenge remains steep. DNV estimates CCS will capture just 1.3G tonnes of CO2 annually by 2050 – only a fraction of what would be required to achieve a net-zero outcome. Nonetheless, with a project pipeline now exceeding 300M tonnes per annum and investment rising, shipping is set to play a defining role in the development of the global CCS value chain.

source: Riviera News